Sunday, July 30, 2006

House Looks Better Than Senate

We need fifteen seats to win back the House. We need to win six seats to win back the Senate. The former is increasinly seeming more possible, despite the typical difficulty that any challenger to a House incumbent faces.

It's this simple: there are five Republican Senate seats that Democrats have a very good chance of winning. This includes Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), Jim Talent (R-MO), Conrad Burns (R-MT), Mike DeWine (R-OH), and Rick Santorum (R-PA). Victories in all of these races, which isn't an unreasonable prediction, would put the Senate at a 50-50 tie, assuming that the Democrats would defend all of their incumbents and open seats.

50-50 keeps the Senate Republican because of Dick Cheney. Democrats must win a Republican favored seat for a majority. Virginia, Tennessee, and Arizona are the only three possibilities.

The Democrats must either beat an incumbent Republican in Virginia or Arizona, or, they must win the seat currently occupied by the retiring Bill Frist.


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